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FOREX-Yen repairs some damage as dollar power-charge relents

Published 21/02/2020, 10:29
© Reuters.  FOREX-Yen repairs some damage as dollar power-charge relents
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* Yen bounces having been set for worst week in 2-1/2 years

* AUD languishing at 11-year low, kiwi sold

* Euro gets respite after better than expected PMI data

* Emerging market hazard lights flashing

* World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By Marc Jones

LONDON, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Japan's yen bounced sharply in

early European trading on Friday, as traders swooped back into

the currency after its worst four-day run in over two years.

The Japanese currency had lost 2% against the dollar in the

previous two days alone as worries about the impact of the

coronavirus on Asia had spread, but its early burst in London

left it up 0.5% on the day at 111.5 yen. JPY= "Traditionally, the support for the yen comes from two

sources, general risk-off sentiment and a move to safe-haven

bonds," said Saxo Bank's head of FX strategy John Hardy.

The week's dramatic slide, though, has raised more

fundamental questions about the yen's reputation as a safe

harbour when FX markets get stormy.

"The question is whether recent dollar/yen spike higher

could be a one-off move triggered by order flows and algorithm

trading or whether it is something else. This is a very

interesting test of whether we are seeing regime change."

Manufacturing activity in Japan suffered its steepest

contraction in seven years this month, highlighting the widening

global fallout from the virus outbreak in China, a private

business survey showed on Friday. The other side of the move has been a huge charge from the

dollar, which has had its strongest start to a year since 2015.

It was down 0.2% against the major currencies USD= by 0915

GMT but that came after the closely-tracked dollar index .DXY

had touched a three-year peak overnight.

The euro has been shoved down to a near three-year low

EUR= , Australia's dollar AUD=D3 traded at an 11-year low of

$0.66 overnight and China's tightly-managed yuan CNY= was

sitting at a two-month low of 7.0286 per dollar. CNY/

The tourism-exposed Thai baht THB= has dropped 5.5% this

week while the Korean won KRW= and Singapore dollar SGD=

have shed more than 4%. Mexico's peso has been ripped down 2.5%

too having been holding up relatively well recently. EMRG/FRX

"New cases in (South) Korea and in Japan, (have) obviously

given some people a little bit of cold feet regarding Japan and

the yen as a safe haven," said David Bloom, global head of FX at

HSBC.

"They're thinking: 'Maybe Swissy and gold are better'. So

there is a little bit of scratching of heads, there's no doubt

about it," he said, adding he was not yet prepared to abandon

the idea of the yen as a safety play.

The day's other focus for Europe was a blizzard of

purchasing managing index data which due to their forward

looking nature are seen as one of the better indications of

current economic conditions.

The euro saw a modest rise to $1.0817 to the dollar after

IHS Markit's Euro Zone Composite Flash PMI rose to 51.6 in

February beating all forecasts in a Reuters poll which had a

median prediction of 51.0. Anything above 50 indicates growth.

"The euro zone economy managed to pick up some momentum

again in February despite many companies having been disrupted

in various ways by the coronavirus, which caused supply

problems," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at

IHS Markit.

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