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FOREX-Dollar stands tall as upbeat U.S. data trims Fed cut bets

Published 29/11/2019, 01:23
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar stands tall as upbeat U.S. data trims Fed cut bets
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* Dollar tracks toward highest weekly close vs yen since May

* Pound gains as Johnson firms in polls

* Other majors mostly rangebound, awaiting trade news

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE, Nov 29 (Reuters) - The dollar headed for its

highest weekly finish against the safe-haven yen since May on

Friday, as data showing the U.S. economy on a firm footing

prompted investors to scale back rate-cut bets.

Nerves persisted though, as other major currencies spent the

week rangebound, navigating a blizzard of trade-war headlines

that offered few clues as to when or how an overdue truce might

be agreed between Washington and Beijing.

"There seems to be pretty good optimism around the trade

talks going on between U.S. and China," said William O'Loughlin,

a portfolio manager at Rivkin Securities in Sydney.

"Though as we know that can change on a dime...the rally

doesn't feel like a euphoric, super-bullish rally, it does feel

like climbing the wall of worry."

On Friday, the dollar was steady at 109.51 Japanese yen

JPY= , and if it holds there will post a 0.7% gain for the week

and hit its highest weekly close since May 31. Overnight trade

was light with U.S. desks closed for Thanksgiving.

The British pound GBP= has been the week's other main

beneficiary, adding half a percentage point as Prime Minister

Boris Johnson's Conservative Party has firmed in opinion polls

ahead of the Dec. 12 election. Sterling was steady on Friday at $1.2910, while the euro

EUR= held at $1.1012.

"The market has come to the view that this is Johnson's

election to lose now," said Chris Weston, head of research at

Melbourne brokerage Pepperstone, with expectations he can win

with a large margin.

"That said, should any polls call this margin into question,

where invariably there will be one or two, then GBP could see a

sharp sell-off, although I would be using that weakness to buy."

The dollar's strength this week has drawn on hopes that the

United States and China are indeed in the process of negotiating

a ceasefire in their damaging tariff war, and strong U.S.

economic data.

China has vowed to impose "firm countermeasures" after

Trump's approval of a bill backing Hong Kong's pro-democracy

protesters on Wednesday, but is yet to indicate whether they

would have any bearing on trade talks. U.S. growth picked up slightly in the third quarter, data

showed on Wednesday, in contrast to other indicators showing a

slowdown in global activity.

The Fed also flagged an upbeat outlook amid signs of labour

market strength and a possible turnaround in business

investment. That prompted a pullback on rate cut bets for this year and

next, with the market now pricing in a 5% chance the Fed will

hike rates next month and mostly expecting it to hold steady.

FEDWATCH

The strong greenback has Australian dollar AUD= slightly

weaker for the week, but steady on Friday ahead of a central

bank meeting on Tuesday, where the market has priced an 11%

chance of a cut in interest rates to a record low 0.5%.

It last traded at $0.6767, not far above a six-week low hit

on Thursday.

The New Zealand dollar NZD= was flat on Friday at $0.6418

and held its ground for the week, buoyed by rebounding business

sentiment. China's yuan CNH= was steady at 7.0287 per dollar in

offshore trade.

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