* reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=NGGDPAP
Nigeria economic forecasts
* reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=GHGDPAP
Ghana economic forecasts
* reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=KEGDPAP
Kenya economic forecasts
By Vuyani Ndaba
JOHANNESBURG, July 24 (Reuters) - Sub-Saharan Africa's
economy will contract this year after shutdowns disrupted
activity and as daily cases of coronavirus are still rising in
the region but a recovery is expected next year, a Reuters poll
found on Friday.
Following months of lockdowns which have muted economic
activity a Reuters poll taken in the past week suggested the
region will contract 3.1% this year but bounce back to around
3.5% growth in 2021.
Some countries have begun relaxing restrictions but virus
cases are still increasing, unlike in many developed countries
that have started to show signs of recovery, so the uncertainty
meant the range of forecasts for next year was wide - between
flatlining and 4.8% growth.
South Africa has reported the most cases in Africa, partly
reflecting more widespread testing, and it is harder to gauge
the full extent of outbreaks elsewhere although there are no
signs numbers are falling. "Growth downgrades dominate in a region where external and
fiscal buffers were already substantially eroded. The impact of
COVID-19 will reduce growth even further," Standard Chartered
wrote in a note.
Nigeria, Africa's biggest economy, was expected to contract
3.7% this year but bounce back to 2.0% growth next year.
Continental peer South Africa was expected to grow 3.5% next
year following an 8.0% contraction this year, a Reuters poll
showed last week. ECILT/ZA
However, Ghana, one of the continents oil exporters, was
still expected to grow, expanding 1.9% this year and 4.2% in
2021.
"Despite the obvious downside risks from lower oil prices
and headwinds from COVID-19, we believe Ghana has a decent
growth outlook and reasonably comfortable external sector
metrics relative to other African oil exporters," said Michael
Kafe, economist at Barclays.
"The fallout from COVID-19 and associated lockdown means GDP
growth is likely to be weak this year. However, unlike other
African oil exporters such as Angola, Gabon and Nigeria, where
GDP growth is likely to contract this year, we expect Ghana to
post positive GDP growth."
Kenya - east Africa's biggest economy - was expected to have
a lacklustre performance this year with no growth, a poor
outcome having averaged around 6% annual growth in the past
decade.
(For other stories from the Reuters global economic poll: