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- DXY’s resistance near 106 may drive Bitcoin higher as the dollar weakens.
- Divergent views on dollar trajectory impact Bitcoin sentiment.
- Trade tensions could strengthen USD, affecting Bitcoin and forex markets.
The recent events in the financial markets have revealed the possibility that the DXY dollar index can inversely affect the price of Bitcoin, hence, these conditions are likely to create very interesting occurrences for both currency and digital currency markets. The DXY index, now facing resistance around the 106 mark and signs of a downturn, is being speculated to retreat to 102-103, which could be in sync with a rally in Bitcoin’s value.
The narrative unfolds with contrasting views on the trajectory of the U.S. dollar. On one side, there are expectations of a weaker dollar driven by factors such as Federal Reserve policies and potential trade war escalations. Mike Alfred, a seasoned investor, forecasts a decline in the DXY towards 92 by late 2025, aligning with a short-term Bitcoin surge to $90,000.
DXY dollar index hit resistance at 106 as expected and has started to turn over. A move back towards 102-103 will turbocharge this rally. The timing makes sense because Bitcoin is primed to move to $90,000 in the short term. Longer term, I expect DXY at 92, perhaps by late 2025.— Mike Alfred (@mikealfred) April 23, 2024
Conversely, banks like Societe Generale and Scotiabank are more optimistic, foreseeing sustained dollar strength fueled by a prolonged period of Federal Reserve rate stability. They project the DXY to peak within the range of 107 to 110, depending on interest rate outlooks and global trade dynamics.
The relationship between the DXY and Bitcoin reflects broader market sentiments. Historically, the strengthening of the dollar sends a signal to traders that they should hold on to traditional investments such as cryptocurrency. Inversely, a weak dollar might lead to risk appetite and this can spur Bitcoin and other digital currencies.
Another layer of uncertainty is introduced by trade tensions between the U.S. and China. President Biden’s and former President Trump’s proposed tariff hikes could bolster the U.S. dollar through import substitution effects. Barclays underscores the potential impact, suggesting a substantial rally in the DXY if aggressive tariffs are imposed.
According to analysts Jan Happel and Yan Allemann, technical chart patterns like the expanding triangle on the DXY suggest a potential downside. This technical analysis and fundamental factors inform market participants and set expectations for currency movements in the coming weeks and months.
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