Market Overview

It is interesting to me that, with as important and liquid as the inflation-linked bond market is, the tactical allocation between TIPS and nominal bonds is at best an afterthought for most...

We wrote this four-part inflation series in response to the graph below, implying that prices are on the same inflation roller coaster ride as the 1970s. If you have read the first three parts of this...

After an upbeat January, investors should brace for sharp swings in the weeks ahead as the new month kicks off. February is expected to be a difficult month on Wall Street amid several major...

The long-term return forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to ease in January, dipping to an annualized 6.6% total return, based on the average for three models (defined below).GMI is a...

Stocks rebounded yesterday ahead of today’s job report, with expectations for 185,000 new jobs to have been created, down from 216,000 last month.Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to...

As FOMC rides into the sunset until March, the US Dollar Index is left to fend for itself amid the hawkish (or at least not yet dovish) echos of Jerome Powell’s assertion that the market should...

By Padhraic GarveyWe are a bit surprised the market has not moved more on the Fed’s firm preference for a holding pattern on rates. Bottom line we see pressure for yields to edge higher on a...

Part One of this series led with a graph implying that we are embarking on an inflation rollercoaster for the next ten years, similar to the experience of 1965 to 1982.Parts One and Two explained the...

The Federal Reserve is all but certain to leave rates unchanged at its January FOMC meeting. Fed Chair Powell could strike a more hawkish tone than expected in the post-meeting press conference. As...

Stocks got a bump late in the day after the US Treasury announced it would borrow $55 billion less than projected last quarter.It now expects to borrow just $760 billion in privately held net...

This week is huge: revisions to 2023 CPI, US labor market print, the Fed, and, most importantly, the Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) everyone talks about.So I thought I’d share an initial...

This week will be busy, and if you are taking time off, don’t.The news starts Monday afternoon and runs through Friday morning, and all of it will impact where stocks and rates go from here...

The only thing that was genuinely surprising in yesterday’s fourth-quarter report on US economic activity was the strength of the increase.The positive directional bias, by contrast, has been...

As money market account balances soar, the mainstream media again proclaims, “There is $6 trillion of cash on the sidelines just waiting to come into the market.”No? Well, here it is...