U.S. Oil Policy in the Spotlight

 | Nov 10, 2022 10:42

This week saw several important developments on the future of U.S. oil policy, production, and the price cap policy on Russian oil. Traders should be aware of how these developments are likely to impact markets.

1. U.S. Midterm Election Results/h2

Although some election results are still being tabulated, it appears as though the Republican Party won announced that their price cap will only apply to the first point of sale of Russian oil. The price cap policy denies access to U.S. and EU shipping, insurance, and banking infrastructure to parties that purchase Russian oil at a price above the price cap. The actual price cap has not yet been decided. This means that Russian crude oil can be resold globally at any price or it can be refined into products that can then be sold at any price. This makes Russian oil even more attractive to countries like India, China, Turkey, and Indonesia, who can not only continue to purchase Russian crude oil for domestic use but can potentially buy even more Russian crude and trade it on the global market or refine into products they can sell globally. If they agree to a negotiated price with Russia that is at or below the price cap, transporting that crude oil will become even easier. Of course, Russia may still decline to sell its oil at the price cap level. Until the price is announced, it is very difficult to predict what will happen when the policy goes into effect.

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