Did the NASDAQ 100 Put In a Major Top?

 | Feb 13, 2024 20:07

In our last update from two weeks ago, see here, we knew for the Nasdaq 100, based on the Elliott Wave Principle, that,

“An impulse consists of five waves; so far, there have been only three waves since the January 5th low. Hence, we must expect another grey W-v to ideally $17738-890 once the current minor correction since last week’s high has run its course while staying above critical price levels. Note that the grey W-iv typically reaches the 100% Fib-extension level but can also bottom at 123.60% (shallow) or 76.40% (deep).”

Fast-forward, and the index bottomed out on “FED-day” right at the 76.40% level ($17128 vs. $17093) for grey W-iv and rallied up to yesterday to $18041 for grey W-v, only to fall out of bed today. See Figure 1 below. Moreover, the colored boxes and dotted arrows show the corresponding wave target zones and the general path forward based on the standard Fibonacci-based EWP impulse pattern forecasted on January 19, respectively. Please note we can only outline the potentials the markets have, not the certainties. But by using the EWP, we always have price levels above or below which we know if the market is still on the right path or not.

Figure 1. NDX hourly chart with detailed EWP count and technical indicators