Bullish Breakouts for S&P 500 and Russell 2000 but Nasdaq Struggles at 200-Week MA
Declan Fallon | Mar 07, 2023 09:42
When you are getting spun around by daily charts, it's always good to fall back on weekly charts to see the big picture. If you are an investor, then the weekly charts are all you need.
I have been waiting for a confirmation of the breakout on dailies, but these just keep flipping back and forth on that timeframe. The weekly chart shows a well-established break of the bearish trend, but this hasn't yet shaped the move to build the right-hand side of a new base. In the case of the S&P 500, the summer high is the more important resistance level (currently at 4,325).
Technicals are moving out of the bearish territory. In particular, the MACD is working its way above the bullish mid-line. On-Balance-Volume is also about to turn bullish (on the weekly time frame). As a weekly chart, the caveat could be the end of the year before we even see a challenge of 4,325, but I see this chart as more bullish.
The NASDAQ Composite also breached declining resistance, but unlike for the S&P 500, it's struggling at its 200-week MA, which is not ideal. The 200-week MA (in essence, a 4-year MA) can be viewed as a cyclical bull/bear market switch, so if it's trading (and staying) below this moving average, then it could be there for a long time.
However, there are bullish flags, particularly in technicals, with stochastics about to return to a bullish market along with a cross above the zero line in the MACD. While I view the Nasdaq as more bullish on a daily time frame than the S&P 500, it's more bearish on a weekly time frame.
The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) has a well-established resistance it's knocking up against. On the daily chart, we are working support of November, but on the weekly chart, we have already tested summer resistance and are well positioned to start a right-hand base. The Russell 2000 has a strong weekly chart and excellent technicals. It's also well above its 200-week MA. Again, as an investor, there is little to dislike here.
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Going forward, there is solid strength in the Russell 2000. This index is well placed to form a right-hand base (on a push above psychological resistance of $200 in IWM), which won't take much to see a test of all-time highs. If this index can lead out, it will help bring the S&P 500 and Nasdaq along with it. When in doubt, stick to the weeklies.
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