Bitcoin: $83K the Make-or-Break Level For a Recovery Rally
Investing.com | Mar 14, 2025 10:53
- Bitcoin's downtrend continues with low trading volume.
- Fed rate cut hopes briefly lifted Bitcoin to $85K.
- Key resistance at $83,200–$83,300 for trend reversal.
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Bitcoin continues its downward trend, in line with the overall crypto market. The recent turbulence in global markets has had a significant impact on the crypto sector.
Trump's inconsistent trade policies and contradictory statements are making market pricing difficult. In this uncertain environment, risk aversion persists, keeping Bitcoin on a downward trajectory. Additionally, rising geopolitical risks are among the factors negatively affecting both stock and crypto markets. However, this week's macroeconomic data has at least slowed Bitcoin's decline.
The CPI and PPI data released in the U.S. this week came in below expectations, offering some relief to the markets. The downward trend in inflation has fueled speculation that the Fed may bring forward its expected interest rate cuts. Until recently, there were discussions that the Fed might hold off on cutting interest rates this year due to concerns that Trump's policies could drive inflationary pressure. As in the past, the crypto market continues to move in parallel with the Fed's policies. Historically, the market tends to grow during the Fed’s expansionary phases, while demand for crypto significantly declines during tightening periods.
Recently, expectations of Fed rate cuts have had a positive impact on risk assets. Bitcoin’s price surged to $85,000 following the CPI data release. However, cautious statements from the Fed and ongoing global risks appear to have weakened investors' appetite for "buying the dip" compared to previous market cycles. This suggests that selling pressure in Bitcoin remains strong.
A notable aspect of Bitcoin’s downtrend is the decline in trading volume. Lower trading volume indicates a lack of investor engagement, making it difficult for recovery attempts to gain momentum.
While there are positive narratives surrounding the crypto market in the U.S., the broader uncertainty stemming from the U.S. itself continues to overshadow these developments. If an agreement on tariffs is reached in the coming months or if markets begin pricing in current risks, we may see Bitcoin enter a recovery phase. This could happen in the second half of the year. However, for now, the risk of Bitcoin hitting new lows remains.
Technical Outlook for Bitcoin
Bitcoin has seen its most significant selling wave over the past two weeks. During the week of February 24, BTC's price fell from $96,250 to $78,250 before rebounding to close at $94,270. This created a downward gap in Bitcoin’s price action. The following week, on March 3, continued selling pressure led to the gap from February 24 being filled, with Bitcoin touching the $80,000 level. These past two weeks suggest that a strong buying zone exists in the $78,000–$80,000 range.
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This week, Bitcoin has been trading with low volume but has seen rapid demand from support, even after dipping to the $76,600 range. Recent buying activity has brought Bitcoin to a critical level.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin has been moving within a falling channel since February. It started this week at $78,500, rebounding from the lower boundary of the channel. By mid-week, the middle band of the channel acted as resistance for Bitcoin. The nearest resistance zone, within the $83,200–$83,300 range, is also aligned with the 8-day EMA.
A daily close above this level could push BTC toward the upper band of the channel at $86,400 (Fib 0.382). A breakout above this resistance could trigger a trend reversal, potentially leading Bitcoin back to the $96,000–$106,000 range.
On the other hand, if BTC fails to break the first resistance zone in the coming days (currently at $83,200–$83,300), selling pressure may intensify. In this case, Bitcoin could remain within the lower zone of the channel, with the next support level at the Fib 0.618 retracement value of $74,000, below $80,200.
Looking at Bitcoin’s daily chart, short- and medium-term EMAs are currently signaling a bearish trend. The Stochastic RSI is neutral but could turn bullish after a daily close above $83,200. However, another move toward $80,000 could trigger further downside pressure and possibly lead to another breakout attempt.
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